Diamond Dancers

Lucroy and good video

Lucroy appears to be OUT for 4 weeks. Also.....the attached video is a dandy! Hat tip to Mark Dahl for the footage. Palms

Wainwright

Hat tip to Leaf Hopper Tolokken and USA Today's Daily Pitch.

Cardinals' Adam Wainwright has 'significant' elbow injury
Adam Wainwright was a 20-game winner last season with the Cardinals. CAPTIONBy Jeff Roberson, APSuddenly, the potential distraction of Albert Pujols' contract situation is far from the most pressing issue in St. Louis Cardinals camp.

Starting pitcher Adam Wainwright, who finished second in the National League Cy Young Award race last season, left Cardinals camp in Jupiter, Fla. and returned to St. Louis to have his pitching elbow examined.

General manager John Mozeliak told news reporters that the elbow injury is "significant."

If early indications are as grim as they appear, and Wainwright is headed for Tommy John ligament replacement surgery, the blow would be a devastating one for the Cardinals.

They are built heavily on Pujols and pitching, and losing their co-ace -- along with veteran Chris Carpenter -- would vastly change the dynamic of the club while also giving significant hope to the defending NL Central champion Cincinnati Reds, as well as the upstart Milwaukee Brewers and Chicago Cubs.

Minus Wainwright, those clubs could easily boast a superior 1-2 (or even 1-2-3) pitching duo than the Cardinals, with the Brewers adding Zack Greinke and Shaun Marcum to Yovanni Gallardo, and the Cubs adding Matt Garza to Ryan Dempster and a revitalized Carlos Zambrano.

The St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports that Wainwright had a tear in the same ligament in 2004 and missed his final start of 2010 due to discomfort.

An elbow examination in November showed no structural problems, and Mozeliak reports that the latest problem was discovered after Wainwright threw a bullpen session. The GM is expected to provide an update on Wainwright's prognosis Wednesday afternoon.

The Post-Dispatch also notes that Wainwright's two-year contract option that was triggered by his Cy Young finish is valid only if he does not finish the 2011 season on the disabled list.

And as with everything involving the Cardinals this season, it all comes back to Pujols. The chance to win consistently while also getting paid a salary commensurate to his status in the game is a significant portion of Pujols' free agency equation.

If Wainwright misses this season and spends part of 2012 recovering from surgery, it probably wouldn't help the Cards' chances of convincing their franchise icon that he can do both in St. Louis.

Wainwright posted a 20-11 record and a 2.42 ERA last season, losing out to Roy Halladay in Cy Young voting. In 2009, he finished third in Cy Young balloting after a 19-8, 2.63 season, and he's 64-34 since joining the Cardinals rotation full-time in 2007.

For now, the Cardinals will make do with what they have and, presumably, explore replacement options. Speculation has already begun that they will pursue free agent pitcher Kevin Millwood.

SCORE - 1ST ANNUAL PALMS HOT STOVE BLOG GAME

I have not time to deal with this right now. But......we've scored tickets!

WE HAVE 8 TICKETS (money graciously fronted by Don Huff) for Sunday April 10 at 1pm vs. the dasterdly Cubs.

The seats are excellent in section 126 row 23. That's about 1/2 way between SS and the foul pole down the LF line (LOWER BOX) by the looks of it. You'll see the Miller Park seating map attached. It's "marquee" pricing so understand that your buying seats for $70.50 per.

This will take some time to arrange properly but it will be on a first come first serve basis. So first things first....let me know if you want me to hold a ticket for you and we'll go from there. I think we need to figure out who would want to attend and then get Don his ticket money reimbursed as a first step.

Everything else can follow......woooo hoooooo

Palms

Brewers v. Cubs - Wanna?

You have to like this story from Deadspin about a Brewer game vs. the Cubs last year. Take a look at that picture!

More important.....Don Huff won a lottery for a marquee game this year and has graciously offered to begin the organizing process for the Palms Blog game by trying to secure some entry passes. He has to buy tickets today and is targeting the Cubs v. Crew on April 8-10. Wouldn't that be cool. He figures he can sell the tix if we can't figure it out. No promises at this point just a heads up that some things are in the works. I'll try send an update after I find out about how the ticket purchase went.


Fake Press Release Makes Worthless Cubs/Brewers Game Temporarily Interesting
Brian Hickey — How do you make a Cubs/Brewers interesting when they have a combined 126-155 record? You slip a fake press release supposedly written by Cubs GM Jim Hendry into the press pack! Here's a pic (via Paul Sullivan's Twitter) ...


Brewers Vice-President of Communications Tyler Barnes said they are looking into the incident, and that it was "impossible to know where it came from." They have not apologized to the Cubs or Hendry yet, but have spoken to the Cubs about the hoax.

"You've got people credentialed from every city in the country around here," he said. "Without knowing who did it... It's an unfortunate incident. It's a lousy attempt at a practical joke and in that way we're certainly sorry. But without being able to know who did it..." [ChicagoBreakingSports.com]

Cubs haters, take the mic. Just don't ...



... kielbasa the messenger.

BP Forecast

I'm having trouble buying the idea that the Reds will finish right at 500. What scenarios could bring this about, sophomore slump? Injuries? Seems hard to believe. I supose that number seems about right for the Crew. Again some notes about our defense being BAD!

Baseball Prospectus has posted its early projections for MLB division races this season at the ESPN.com pay site, ESPN Insider.

Under the headline, "A tight race in the NL Central," here's how Baseball Prospectus sees the NL Central race shaking out with projected records for 2011:

•St. Louis Cardinals (87-75)
•Milwaukee Brewers (85-77)
•Cincinnati Reds (81-81)
•Chicago Cubs (80-82)
•Pittsburgh Pirates (71-91)
•Houston Astros (68-94)

Larry Granillo of Baseball Prospectus writes: "Milwaukee GM Doug Melvin surprised everybody over the winter by not only hanging onto Prince Fielder but also emptying the farm system to trade for two top-of-the-rotation starters in Shaun Marcum and Zack Greinke. After adding those two to Yovani Gallardo and Ryan Braun and the rest of the Brewers' offense, Milwaukee expects to do big things this year."

On the downside, Granillo says: "In 2010, the Brewers had two glaring weaknesses: pitching and defense. The off-season trades addressed the pitching problem in a big way. The defense, however, got worse, as shortstop Alcides Escobar was traded and replaced by Yuniesky Betancourt."

Baseball Prospectus says a "player who could disappoint" is rightfielder Corey Hart, who hit 31 homers last season.

Hart's Eyes

Sorry....been away! I thought this was interesting. Remember those eye issues Hart had.....he quit wearing the lenses. Hat tip to JSOnline.

Hart eyeing the future after tumultuous season

Phoenix — Corey Hart revealed a somewhat startling secret, one that he had been keeping for nearly a year.

Remember those contact lenses the Milwaukee Brewers' rightfielder supposedly wore throughout the 2010 season to correct a slight vision problem?

"I threw them away after spring training," said Hart. "I never wore the contacts after the season started."

Hart shakes his head now when recalling the travesty that spring camp became for him last year after the requisite physical examination revealed he was slightly nearsighted. Because he had fallen off offensively during the 2009 season, the recommendation was that he improve his vision via glasses or contacts.

It didn't take long for Hart to feel like a laboratory rat. He tried glasses but didn't like wearing them in games. He waited for corrective goggles that apparently were lost in the mail. Hart eventually settled on contact lenses but never felt comfortable wearing them.

During that process, Hart struggled so badly at the plate that speculation arose that he might be released. He had won a salary arbitration hearing just before spring training, receiving a $4.8 million judgment despite going from 20 home runs and 91 runs batted in during the 2008 season to 12 and 48 in '09.

Arbitration salaries are not guaranteed until the season begins, allowing clubs to release players and pay only a fraction of their salary during the spring if so desired.

"It was a frustrating, very unsure feeling," recalled Hart. "It got to the point, where I said, 'I might not even be on the team.' I knew arbitration salaries aren't guaranteed.

"I had a lot of things going on. The whole eye thing was so blown up. They kept using that as an excuse for me having a bad spring. I never said that."

It got so bad that the Brewers contacted aging free-agent outfielder Jermaine Dye to see if he was interested in keeping his career going. They apparently didn't offer enough money to tempt Dye, who opted to remain unemployed.

Still, with veteran outfielder Jim Edmonds as an option in right field, Hart began the season on the bench. He had gone from all-star outfielder in 2008 to the bottom of the pecking order less than two years later and was understandably befuddled.

"The vision thing kind of got the best of me," said Hart, who will be 29 on March 24. "I tried the glasses, the contacts, everything. I went through two or three different kinds of contacts. I just felt like I was seeing the ball OK (without them).

"I'm sure I don't have perfect vision, but I see OK. It isn't a problem for me. I spent too much time trying to figure things out. It was terrible. I just decided to go back to doing what I was doing. If I was going to fail, I was going to fail as me."

Rather than pouting and complaining about his plight, Hart kept working with hitting coach Dale Sveum, who helped him rediscover his power stroke. When Edmonds began experiencing leg problems, the door opened for Hart to reclaim his right-field job.

He didn't blow the chance. Hart led the National League with 10 home runs and 22 RBI in May, and just like that he was a regular player again. He hit the break with a .288 average, 21 homers and 65 RBI, earning a vote by his peers to play for the NL all-star team.

"When Jim got hurt last year, if I don't take advantage of it, who knows what happens?" said Hart, who also made it to the second round of All-Star Home Run Derby. "April was a tough month. I didn't have many at-bats. That made it tough to get comfortable. I wasn't used to that."

Hart showed he had no hard feelings about temporarily losing his job by having his agent broach the idea of a contract extension with club officials. It didn't take long for a three-year, $26.5 million deal to come together, an agreement announced on Aug. 2 while the Brewers were in Chicago.

So, it was just your typical season. Player's vision becomes tempest in a teapot, player thinks he'll be released, player loses his starting job, player makes the all-star team, player gets multiyear contract.

Yawn.

"I went around in a full circle," said Hart, who finished with a .283 average and career highs of 31 RBI and 102 RBI. "I was four types of player in one year. I went from being almost released to a bench player to a part-time player to getting a long-term contract.

"I'm proud of the way I handled it. I think I showed a lot of character by coming around and proving my worth. At the same time, I'll never question this game. This game has been really good to me and my family.

"I'm able to do so much more than I ever thought I could. I'm not going to complain. I just think it shows if you work, things will turn out."

Understandably, Hart is looking forward to a more peaceful, upbeat spring. But he quickly cautioned against worries about his vision should he fare poorly when exhibition season begins.

"If I don't play good in spring training, it's just because I'm playing bad," he said. "It's not because I can't see.

"One of the things I learned is to put zero emphasis on spring training. I just want to make sure I'm ready for opening day. I'll just work hard and try to stay healthy. I think this can be a special team. I'm excited about getting going."

Trite as the phrase might be, what a difference a year makes.

Gamel

Sorry....been in the Big Easy on business. Some interesting news on Gamel.
Hat tip to Tom Hardicourt and the JSOnline.

Phoenix - Sounds like Mat Gamel is going to need plenty of fielder's gloves
during the Brewers' spring camp.

During his briefing this morning, manager Ron Roenicke said Gamel will get
work this spring at third base, first base and the outfield corners, mostly
in right. Considered one of the top prospects in the system for years,
Gamel has been held back by injuries and lack of opportunity.

Gamel came through the system as a third baseman but Casey McGehee has that
spot sewed up. At first base, there won't be an opening until Prince
Fielder leaves via free agency, as expected. For that matter, the Brewers
have all-stars in the corner outfield in Ryan Braun and Corey Hart.

So, Gamel must bide his time, show some versatility and see what happens.

"He's going to bounce around," said Roenicke. "The guy can hit. If he makes
us believe he can play a lot of positions, it helps him make the team. If I
were in his shoes, I'd be open to anything."

Roenicke conceded that another factor is if it's better for Gamel to play
every day at Class AAA Nashville rather than see sporadic action off the
Brewers' bench. That call will come at the end of camp.

Roenicke noted that there are only a "couple of utility spots" to be won on
the roster along with a possible spot or two in the bullpen. The situation
in the bullpen will be determined by how many pitchers the Brewers break
camp with -- 11 or 12 -- and if LaTroy Hawkins recovers from shoulder
surgery in time to be ready for opening day.

"If LaTroy is not healthy, they'll probably be a couple of spots (to be
won)," said Roenicke.

Roenicke said closer John Axford, who is recovering from food poisoning,
will do a little more today than yesterday but still isn't strong enough to
do a bullpen session.

On another topic, I just saw a release out of St. Louis that Jim Edmonds is
retiring rather than reporting to St. Louis' camp. Edmonds has an Achilles
tendon problem that prevents him from playing right now. That's too bad
because the guy can still hit. He had trouble with that Achilles heel last
year with the Brewers, too.

NL Central Issues

A GOOD SUMMARY OF SOME OF THE CENTRAL'S ISSUES:

By Tim Kurkjian
ESPN The Magazine

National League Central
Chicago Cubs: Will Mike Quade be the answer?
We have been fooled by the Cubs before, and vowed we won't get fooled again. But there's something refreshing and new about them hiring a career minor leaguer as their manager to restore thoughts that they can indeed contend in a winnable division.
The Cubs played much better for Quade than they did for Lou Piniella last year. And now they have Matt Garza in their rotation and a determined Carlos Pena on a one-year deal at first base. It still might not work, but it's certainly worth a try.

Cincinnati Reds: In what role will Aroldis Chapman fit best?
He will begin the year in the bullpen as a setup guy. Anything more would be too much for one so young and so raw. But his stuff is stunning, and it may only take a couple of months -- a la Neftali Feliz in Texas -- before he works his way into the closer's role. Or, if the young, talented Reds rotation needs help, Chapman's stuff will work three times through the lineup once he learns more about the art of pitching. But he has a lot of weapons with which to work.

Houston Astros: Was the purge the right idea?
The Astros weren't going anywhere anyway with Lance Berkman, Roy Oswalt and the rest of the veteran players; moving some guys along to let the young guys play was the thing to do.
Now we'll see if Chris Johnson takes another step forward at third base, Jason Castro does the same behind the plate and first baseman Brett Wallace becomes the hitter so many think he will be.
Now, if the Astros can trade left fielder Carlos Lee, that would be a bonus, but it's highly unlikely.

Milwaukee Brewers: Prince Fielder
He will be a free agent after the 2011 season, and he won't sign long-term in Milwaukee, not at what likely will be for around $20 million a year. So the Brewers either will try to win the division with him -- they have a chance, having added Zack Greinke and Shaun Marcum to their rotation -- or they will trade Fielder during spring training, or sometime during the season.
It's a tough call for the Brewers: when to trade Fielder, and for whom. Teams these days are so unwilling to part with good young pitching. But one way or another, eventually Fielder is going to leave Milwaukee.

Pittsburgh Pirates: Is there any hope?
There is no hope of ending the Pirates' major league record of 18 consecutive losing seasons. But at least they will lose with a full season of Neil Walker at second base, Pedro Alvarez at third, Jose Tabata in left and Andrew McCutchen in center.
They still need a lot of pitching help, and maybe trading backup catcher Ryan Doumit can bring something.

St. Louis Cardinals: Albert Pujols
Logically, there is no way the Cardinals can let Pujols leave via free agency. He has had, in some respects, the best first 10 years of any player in baseball history. Pujols is on his way to surpassing the great Lou Gehrig as the greatest first baseman of all time. He wants a contract done before spring training begins.
The Cardinals have the money to afford him; they have been gearing up for this negotiation for years. But they're not going to give him a 10-year deal. If he gets to free agency in November, all bets are off. But even if he does, how many teams can afford to give one player $30 million a year? The Yankees and Red Sox have long-term answers at first. The Cubs? Can they afford that? The Angels? This is a complicated story, but a simple one: We can't imagine the Cardinals letting him walk away.

Pujols affects Price - deadline kicked back

Hat tip to SI.com and Bill Shaiken at the LA Times.

Shaiken reports.....
As Prince Fielder takes what will almost certainly be his final spring swings with the Milwaukee Brewers, he has to be rooting for Albert Pujols to sign a contract extension with the St. Louis Cardinals rather than head into free agency with him next fall. The market for Fielder could be surprisingly limited, with several big-bucks teams probably unavailable to drive up the market. The Boston Red Sox have Gonzalez at first base; the New York Yankees have Mark Teixeira; the Philadelphia Phillies have Ryan Howard; and the Detroit Tigers have Cabrera. Also, Angels owner Arte Moreno prefers to avoid Scott Boras, the agent for Fielder.

SO.....it's somewhat pertinent to Prince that Pujols and the Cards extended their deadline. We'll keep watchin'....

Cardinals, Pujols extend deadline for contract talks by one day Story Highlights
The extension, until Wednesday, is out of respect for Cardinals legend Stan Musial
Musial will be given the Presidential Medal of Freedom on Tuesday
Albert Pujols had said he wouldn't negotiate once he arrived at camp Wednesday

JUPITER, Fla. (AP) -- The St. Louis Cardinals and representatives for Albert Pujols have agreed to a 24-hour extension on contract extension talks out of respect for Stan Musial.

The Cardinals Hall of Famer will be awarded the Presidential Medal of Freedom in Washington on Tuesday and general manager John Mozeliak said Monday the club did not want to distract from Musial's special day.

Pujols' agent, Dan Lozano, originally set a Tuesday deadline, the first workout day for pitchers and catchers in Jupiter, Fla., to reach an agreement. Mozeliak said the new deadline is noon (EST) Wednesday.

The 31-year-old Pujols is seeking a contract, perhaps as long as a decade in length, that would make him one of the highest paid players in the major leagues and allow him to retire as a Cardinal.

Copyright 2011 Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.

Yuni

Hat tip to Adam McCalvy and Brewers.com.I felt the need to dig into Yuni a little. Pretty concerning what you read, this seemed to be a good summary of the issues. Perhaps Pops Donnelly could play a better short?

I received a bunch of questions like this over the past two weeks from fans worried about the Brewers' plans for shortstop. But every indication so far from general manager Doug Melvin is that he's comfortable with the Betancourt/Counsell tandem, and that he's puzzled by the level of concern about Betancourt after getting him from Kansas City in the otherwise-popular Zack Greinke trade.
"Getting Betancourt back was key," Melvin said the day Greinke checked in at Miller Park. "I know that stat guys hate the guy. I don't know how they can say he's the worst player in baseball."
Melvin might have been talking about Sports Illustrated's Joe Posnanski, one of the best writers in sports, who did mention Betancourt among the least-valuable players in baseball at one point in 2009.
Betancourt is indeed criticized for his defense, but like all defensive measures, his shortcomings are more or less serious depending on the stat. Baseball-Reference.com ranked 28 regular shortstops by "fielding runs," a measure of a player's defense compared to the rest of the league, and Betancourt was 17th at -2. Alcides Escobar, the former Brewers shortstop traded to the Royals in the Greinke deal, was a notch lower at -3. The website baseballevaluation.com devised a stat called "Field Value" that considers factors like innings or games played, fielding percentage and range factor compared to other players, and it ranked Betancourt sixth of the 54 players considered. But Betancourt didn't fare so well in UZR, or ultimate zone rating, which measures the number of runs above or below average a fielder is in various categories. Betancourt ranked third worst among 21 qualifying players, according to Fangraphs.com, ahead of only Hanley Ramirez and Jason Bartlett.
Betancourt also gets low offensive marks from many serious observers because he doesn't get on base much (his .288 OBP last season was next to last among 22 qualifying shortstops on Fangraphs.com). But Melvin points out that he's only 29 and showed improvement at the plate in 2010 from a terrible '09 season split between the Mariners and Royals. In '10, Betancourt's 16 home runs and 78 RBIs tied for Kansas City's team lead in both categories.
"I'm not so opposed to a guy at the bottom of the order swinging away," Melvin said. "What are you doing? You're going to get a walk to get to the pitcher? I know they say it turns the lineup over, but sometimes those [No. 7 or 8] guys have a chance to drive in a run in the eighth inning."
The ultimate measure here could be "wins above replacement," a widely used stat that asks what teams would lose if they had to replace a player, say, if he was injured, with another player off the bench or from the Minor Leagues. In the Fangraphs rankings, Betancourt tied with -- guess who? -- Escobar near the bottom of the rankings, with a 0.6 WAR. Only Cesar Izturis of the Orioles was less valuable, according to that list. In the Baseball-Reference.com measure, Betancourt is tied with the Yankees' Derek Jeter for 13th of 26 shortstops who played at least 100 games, with a 1.3 WAR. Alcides Escobar was last on that list, at --0.7 (though he's going to move up that chart as the years go on).
So, is Betancourt Troy Tulowitzki? No way. Nobody inside or outside of Miller Park is saying that. But if you go get someone else in a trade or via free agency, you'd have to ask what's the margin of upgrade and what else are you giving up? The Brewers don't like the answers to either question, so they're going to give Betancourt a shot.

86-76

Trivia- This is a picture of the cap logo used by the Brewers from 1970-1977.

OK.....lets put that WAR lesson to good use (see previous post for those of you asleep).
Hat tip to ESPN.com and Zach Singer and Justin Havens.

Three things......
1) They stand to gain nearly 9 wins with Greinke and Marcum over Bush/Parra. Actually Greinke's ceiling could be higher given the year before he had Cy Young numbers.
2) Betancourt continues to get pounded in every article I read. What other options will they explore in spring training?
3) I must bone up on UZR.....what the heck is that?
Palms

Brewing up a special rotation in Milwaukee
December, 19, 2010
By Zachary Singer and Justin Havens
Just when it appeared the Milwaukee Brewers were caught in the middle between contention and rebuilding, the team continues its complete overhaul of its starting pitching staff, acquiring 2009 AL Cy Young award winner Zack Greinke from the Kansas City Royals in exchange for a bevy of prospects. While the merits of the prospects will certainly be debated, what cannot be argued is that Greinke makes the Brewers staff among the most formidable in the National League.

Greinke followed up his 2009 Cy Young campaign with a solid, if unspectacular 2010. His traditional numbers were not very good (10-14, 4.17), his K/9 rate had a significant drop (from 9.50 to 7.40, closer to his career average) and his HR/9 rate nearly doubled, from 0.43 to 0.74. But many of Greinke’s problems in 2010 were not his fault.

Greinke posted a career-high ground-ball percentage (46.0%), but he was doing so with terrible fielders responsible for getting to all those ground balls. According to Baseball Info Solutions, Kansas City was 30th in all of baseball in Defensive Runs Saved in 2010 (-88). Greinke’s FIP (3.34) was over three-quarters of a run better than his ERA. The 2010 Brewers were league-average defensively last season (-0.7, 16th in Team UZR), but that represents a drastic improvement for Greinke.

One red flag is Yuniesky Betancourt, who is coming with Greinke to the Brewers. Betancourt was the third-worst starting shortstop in MLB in 2010 based on UZR (-9.5) and the less he plays at shortstop for the 2011 Brewers, the better.

Milwaukee acquired Shaun Marcum from the Toronto Blue Jays on December 6th, giving the Brewers a right-hander with success against the power bats of the AL East. Coming off of Tommy John surgery, Marcum had an impressive 2010, going 13-8 with an ERA of 3.64 and a nearly equal FIP of 3.74. He had a very low walk rate in 2010 (1.98 BB/9), despite the fact that only 48.7% of all strikes he threw were in the strike zone.

Marcum is adept at getting hitters to chase, with nearly a third of all swings against him being on pitches outside the zone (30.4%). Marcum had a significant change in his arsenal coming off of Tommy John surgery. He threw a higher percentage of fastballs in 2010 than he had in 2008 with the Blue Jays (from 48.3% to 61.2%). He also threw a greater percentage of changeups (23.2% to 24.1%), but was more effective, with his batting average against his changeup dropping from .213 to .152.



Clearly, the Brewers can expect an upgrade in performance from their staff. But just how much? By using the Wins Above Replacement statistic, it’s possible to estimate how much of an upgrade Greinke and Marcum will be.

In 2010, the Brewers’ fourth and fifth starters -- Dave Bush and Manny Parra -- combined to give the team 47 starts, going 10-20, 5.09 ERA. That combined production was worth -0.1 Wins Above Replacement.

On the flip side, Greinke contributed 5.2 WAR and Marcum chipped in 3.5. So, assuming Greinke and Marcum repeat their performances from 2010 -- a reasonable suggestion -- the Brewers stand to gain nearly nine wins. That’s the difference between 77-85 and 86-76. Or, between non-contention and contention.

Marcum - No Arby

I guess that leave Ricky left to sign a deal. Should it be more than 1 year? Mike Peters told me that this deal was only possible after both sides reviewed Shaun's xFIP (reportedly a statistic made up by Francisco Liriano's agent).

Hat tip to Tom Haurdicourt and the Milwauke Journal Sentinel.
Marcum avoids arbitration with Brewers by agreeing to one-year deal

Shaun Marcum agreed to a one-year deal Wednesday.
By Tom Haudricourt of the Journal Sentinel
Feb. 9, 2011
The first pitch that Shaun Marcum throws for the Milwaukee Brewers will be in spring training, not in an arbitration hearing.

The Brewers and Marcum's agent, Rex Gary, worked out a one-year deal Wednesday night that will pay the 29-year-old right-hander a $3.95 million salary for 2011. That agreement avoided an arbitration hearing that was scheduled for Thursday afternoon in Phoenix.

The agreement was just below the midpoint of the figures filed by the sides in January. Marcum, acquired in a trade with Toronto in December, had requested a $5 million salary, and the Brewers filed at $3 million. Performance bonuses for innings pitched and awards were included that will allow Marcum to surpass the midpoint figure.

Marcum's ability to earn more than the midpoint was a key factor in reaching an agreement.

"That was important to them," said Teddy Werner, the Brewers' director of business operations who negotiated the deal with Gary.

"I think both sides are pleased to reach a settlement and avoid a hearing."

Werner and Gary struck the deal in a meeting in a Phoenix hotel. Both had traveled there in preparation for a scheduled hearing before a three-person panel. Arbitration panels are obligated to pick one figure or the other without compromise.

It was the second meeting of the day between Werner and Gary, who took a break in between to assess the situation.

"There was a little bit more back and forth after that, and it got done," said Werner. "I'd say this process played out in a typical manner. We got to a spot that both sides thought was a fair number. Most deals require some give and take on both ends."

Marcum made $850,000 in 2010, when he went 13-8 with a 3.64 earned run average in 31 starts for the Blue Jays. His salary was repressed somewhat after he sat out 2009 season while recovering from reconstructive elbow surgery.

The Brewers traded their top prospect, second baseman Brett Lawrie, to Toronto to acquire Marcum the day before the winter meetings opened in Lake Buena Vista, Fla. Two weeks later, they traded for Kansas City ace Zack Greinke, and the addition of two established starting pitchers is projected to return the club to contention after two losing seasons.

When Minnesota's Francisco Liriano agreed to a $4.3 million contract last weekend, it left only one arbitration-eligible pitcher in Marcum's service class, Jered Weaver of the Los Angeles Angels. Those sides went to a hearing Wednesday.

Marcum's deal leaves just one Brewer in arbitration, second baseman Rickie Weeks. His hearing is scheduled for Feb. 17.

Weeks filed for $7.2 million, and the Brewers came in at $4.85 million. Beyond negotiating a one-year deal that would avoid that hearing, the Brewers are trying to reach agreement with Weeks and his agent, Greg Genske, on a multi-year extension.

Weeks has said he does not want to continue talks once spring training begins.

The Art of War

Today we switch gears to a more educational tact. You always here those "dorky" guys on the blogs (Timm?) talking about a players WAR. So...for us to have meaningful discussions about things like this in the future and to set up some future blog posts (note the reference to Y. Betancourt in the article), your homework assignment is to read the following. We won't expect you to calculate it, just understand what it means! Hat tip to Alex Remington at Big League Stew, a Yahoo sports blog (I did edit out some of the ridiculous detail).

Everything you always wanted to know about: WAR
By Alex Remington
Today's statistic: WAR

Good god, what does it stand for?: Wins Above Replacement. Say it again! Simply put, Wins Above Replacement means: how many wins did that player contribute to his team's win total above and beyond what they would have gotten from a "replacement value" player, someone they could have picked up off the scrap heap for next to nothing?
How they calculate WAR: WAR is probably the most popular total value stat out there today, a single number that attempts to quantify a player's worth by looking at his offense, defense (or pitching), defensive position, and the context of the year and league. (Bill James' Win Shares is  another total value stat, but it has been eclipsed in popularity by WAR.)

It's also one of the hardest to calculate, so hang with me here.
As Jabberwocky explains on Beyond the Boxscore, WAR basically aggregates a lot of methods and insights from other advanced stats, like wOBA, FIP and UZR, just to name a few all of which basically express a player's contributions to the team in terms of runs added or runs prevented. These run measures are then adjusted for that player's value "Above Replacement." A replacement player is defined as someone who is below average and should be easily obtainable, the sort of fringy cup-of-coffee guy you can find in AAA, on the waiver wire, or acquire for a PTBNL, a warm body who hurts the team the more he plays. With WAR anyone on the 25-man roster should have an implicit value just in keeping those fringy AAAA guys down on the farm and off the team.

Calculations (editorial note - it's way too complicated - so it's been removed so as not to confuse Don Egge).

What WAR is good for: WAR is basically one attempt at a Grand Unified Stat, a single number that usefully expresses a player's worth and can be compared to all other players. Dave Cameron just wrote a fascinating piece for ESPN which used WAR analysis to argue that Chase Utley(notes) is actually a more valuable player than Albert Pujols(notes), because of the comparative value of their defensive positions and team contracts. Because WAR takes all of this into account, it's a great starting point for argument.

Also, as the Utley article illustrates, WAR is also an interesting way to look at player salaries. A full discussion on properly valuing player salaries is outside the scope of this article (and Colin Wyers in various places) but the basic assumption is this: there is a linear relationship between WAR and salary, and by multiplying a player's WAR by the average value of a win that year, you can come up with an approximate figure of how much money his performance that year was truly worth.

How WAR works: Conceptually, it's simple: WAR is a sum of the win value of a player's offense, defense, pitching, adjusted for that player's defensive position, playing time (thus keeping the replacement level players off the field) and year, park, and league context. The heavy lifting occurs in the individual calculations of the values and constants — as usual, I really just recommend you just use FanGraphs.
The fuzziest of all of these is the concept of the "replacement player." Tom Tango defines it as "the talent level for which you would pay the minimum salary on the open market, or for which you can obtain at minimal cost in a trade." On the other hand, we've all seen our teams struggle with players below replacement level, like Emilio Bonifacio and Yuniesky Betancourt (who had WAR of -0.4 and -2.1 last year, literally below replacement level). In the majors last year, there were eight players with a negative WAR. So "replacement level" is more of a theoretical conception rather than a concrete reality.

The positional adjustments are fixed: catchers, center fielders and shortstops are significantly more valuable than designated hitters and first basemen, so if you look at two players with similar offensive and defensive production at their positions, a catcher with those skills is worth about two more wins than a first baseman.

Generally speaking, the very biggest stars in the game, both pitchers and hitters, post a WAR of 7 or better. Ben Zobrist led all of baseball this year with a WAR of 8.6, which goes to show just how valuable his incredible versatility in the field was. Anything above 9 is extremely rare. (Since 2001, the first year that we have all of the data available for WAR calculations, only two players have ever posted a WAR above 10: Adrian Beltre, the year he exploded to hit .334 and 48 homers with world-class defense at third, and Barry Bonds, who did it every year from 2002-2004. Very good players are between 4 and 6 WAR; players between 1 and 3 are useful, and those with a WAR less than 1 are, by definition, easily replaceable.

When WAR doesn't work: An awful lot of fixed constants are used in the calculation of this stat, both in the individual run wOBA and FIP calculations and then in the positional, replacement, and league adjustments. Every model relies on assumptions, and WAR is no exception. But that simplicity comes at the price of the ability for the model to predict all the variance we see. Fortunately, a number of sabermetricians on the web have continued to go back and rejigger the constants every year, as more games are played and more data is added, so that the assumptions don't become outdated. Still, the caveat remains the same: there are a lot of different ways of calculating a player's worth, and a lot of different ways of choosing which on-field events to include in the model (intentional walks? double plays?) and which to ignore (temperature? wind?).

In addition, UZR is a useful defensive stat, but it's far from perfect; it frequently contradicts the findings of Plus/Minus, from John Dewan's Fielding Bible, which results from a video analysis of every play made by every defensive player, and there's no easy way to reconcile the contradiction. UZR can show some major fluctuations year to year — Nate McLouth had a UZR of -13.8 in 2008, then +3.6 in 2009, for example — which resulted in a nearly two-win swing in his defensive WAR. Ultimately, WAR is a terrific shorthand for a player's worth, but it's by no means the final word on a player.

Why we care about WAR: Two reasons. First, whatever its flaws, it's a stat that lets you express just about everything you can say about a player. (Hey, Yankee fans: Derek Jeter had a higher WAR than Hanley Ramirez last year, 7.6 to 7.4. It's true!) Second, because it lends itself to contract discussions, it's a great way for fans to visualize roster construction in terms of what each player contributes to the team. It's not the perfect stat — no single measure ever will be — but it's impressive in its scope, and awfully fun to use. Good God!

Prince - Contract Year

Hat tip to Mike Axisa at fangraphs.com.

I think this is exactly why Prince will dial up a huge year.....MONEY!

Potential Contract Year Players: Hitters
by Mike Axisa - February 1, 2011

Ah yes, the contract year. It’s a very real phenomenon, something our own Dayn Perry brilliantly analyzed in Baseball Between The Numbers. Fantasy teams benefit from contract years just as much as real teams do, and if you’re lucky you’ll roster one or two such players a year. This is 100% subjective on my part, but I put together a list of five position players that could be primed to explode in 2011 with their eyes on a contract for 2012. Tomorrow we’ll tackle some pitchers.

Jorge PosadaThe last time Posada was playing for a contract (2007), he put together a six-and-a-half win season that featured a .417 wOBA and a sixth place finish in the MVP voting. Now 39, he obviously won’t perform to that level this time around, but he has a new position as a full-time DH that should (in theory) keep him healthier and fresher over the long season. Nagging injuries suffered on hit by pitches and foul tips and what not limited him to just 451 PA in 2010, but he still produced at a .248/.357/.454 clip with 18 homers when he was on the field. With catcher eligibility and one last shot at contract as one of those Yankee “legacy” players, Posada could be in store for big things this year.
Prince FielderWe know Prince is taking this contract year thing seriously, dude’s already lost a whole bunch of weight. He’s also got an every other year thing going on, and 2011 is scheduled to be one of his “on” years. That’s not to say he’s bad in the “down” years, because he’s certainly not (~.415 wOBA’s vs. ~.375), but with Scott Boras dangling the nine-figure contract carrot in front of his face, Fielder could be in store for a monster season. Oh, and he’s just hitting his age 27 season as well, so he’s at his peak age right now. Keep that in mind when you’re deciding between Prince and guys like Mark Teixeira and Ryan Howard.
Jose ReyesThe last two years of Reyes’ career have been hampered by injuries, though he did manage to come to plate over 600 times in 2010. He did steal 30 bases and go deep 11 times with a .282 AVG last year, but it wasn’t the same .290+/12+/60+ guy we’ve become accustomed too. The Mets’ brain trust has talked about signing Reyes to a long-term contract extension, but given the continued uncertainty surrounding the team’s financial (and now ownership) situation, there’s no guarantee that they can afford him. Paul Swydan ran down the teams that could trade for Reyes at the deadline, and the motivation that comes from going from a pretender to a contender can be a powerful thing. Reyes won’t turn 28 until June either, so he’s still crazy young and in his peak years.
Aramis RamirezRamirez looked done early last season, like done done. He was hitting just .168/.232/.285 with five homers in just about 200 PA before hitting the disabled list with a sprained thumb in mid-June. The time off seemed to do the trick, because Ramirez came back and hit .287/.333/.556 with 20 homers in his final ~300 PA of the season. Now 32 (33 in June) and facing what is likely the last chance at a big payday of his career, Aramis could put together a monster season with his sights set on an Adrian Beltre-esque contract, not matter how unrealistic that may be. That’s something to remember when you’re trying to decide between Ramirez and say, Casey McGehee.
Jason KubelThe Twins have really beefed up payroll over the last two or three years, but they’ve got to save somewhere. Joe Mauer‘s making big bucks now, Justin Morneau has been for a few years, and after the season they’re going to have to retain Joe Nathan and/or Matt Capps. And don’t forget that an extension for Francisco Liriano isn’t that far away either. Kubel could be the odd man out. He’s in a bit of a bind because he’s going to have to battle Jim Thome and Michael Cuddyer for playing time, plus his home park was no better than neutral offensively in its inaugural season, so he’s at a disadvantage right off the bat. Twenty homers and 80 or more RBI is fine production for a third outfielder, but there’s a chance he forces his way into more playing time at age 28 (29 in May) and sets himself up for a handsome pay day somewhere else after the season.

Packers!

We'll get back to regular programming later.....Packers deserve all the headlines today. I thought this one was interesting. McCarthy should be coach of the year!


Arlington, Texas — In a show of bravado that was over the top even for the way Green Bay Packers coach Mike McCarthy has handled the six-game win-or-go-home journey, the players were fitted for Super Bowl rings - on Saturday night.

McCarthy actually put the fitting on the team's itinerary for Saturday night. After all the speeches and pep talks were over, the coach dismissed the players and told them to go get their fingers measured.

"That's our head coach," defensive end Ryan Pickett said. "He's been the same way all year. He said he thought we were going to win it all, so we should have the rings fitted. After the meeting we just went out (into the hallway) and they had people there to measure us.

"We can't say enough about those guys. For us to battle back the way we did, it says something about the whole organization."

Cornerback Sam Shields said he wasn't surprised McCarthy did it.

"It was just something to show that he had a lot of confidence in us," Shields said. "Getting fitted for the ring showed he had confidence in us."

Team President Mark Murphy said he was aware of McCarthy's motivational tactic and was excited about it.

He said that over the next two weeks he and others in the organization would start working on the design of the ring.

"The advice I keep getting from the players is that it should be very gaudy," Murphy said.

Hitler reacts to the Zack Greinke trade

Kotsay Part 2

Kotsay's wife also likes softball ...

Kotsay

Nothing official yet on Kotsay. Even more than just a .315 lifetime hitter off the bench, he seems to be a fall back in the event the brewers fall out of it (blasphemy) early and feel the need to trade Prince.

Here is a note from John Heyman at SI.com....

• The Brewers are about to add Mark Kotsay. Perhaps no club has improved as much as Milwaukee this winter. The Brewers look like a contender, but in case they fall out of it and trade Prince Fielder at the deadline, Kotsay gives them a viable first base option.


Ohhhh.....and to bring in a bit of a tabloid feel to the proceedings. I was reading someone else's blog last night (hunting for material you know.....no original thought) and they kept talking about his wife in and around discussing his baseball acumen. Keep it clean boys..... but I'm guessing she doesn't K much?
Palms

Zack, Mark and Pack

I will always try and give attribution for work that is not my own. This will be often given the amount of time I intend to spend on this! Hat tip to YahooSports.com and JS. In keeping with a Packers/Brewers spin heading to Sunday's big game. Zack doesn't sound like a smart guy here, not saying he has to be a Packer fan but he doesn't appear to know his audience.
The situation will change once he starts mowing down Cubs batters, but Zack Greinke(notes) sounded like a man after the heart of every Chicago Bears fan this past weekend.
Lobbed the mother of all ingratiating softball questions at the Milwaukee Brewers' On Deck fan fest on Sunday — say Zack, who ya takin' in the big game? — the ever-transparent ace still couldn't find a reason to lie. He says he'll be waving the Terrible Towel for the upcoming Super Bowl instead of wearing a foam cheesehead. 
From the Journal-Sentinel:
Greinke didn't have to wait for his first poor outing to hear boos from local fans, however. During a question-and-answer session, Greinke and [Shaun] Marcum were asked who they thought would win the Super Bowl.
"I like the Steelers," replied Greinke, who has a reputation for being brutally honest at times.
After boos rained down from the audience, Marcum wasn't about to make the same mistake.
"I'm going to disagree with Zack and go with the Packers," said Marcum, drawing huge applause.
It might be easy to explain away Greinke's gaffe by saying that he forgot he was traded from Kansas City to Milwaukee this offseason. But the truth is that he's been honest about his anti-green-and-gold stance since arriving in Wisconsin late last month. 
"I've never been a Green Bay fan, though," Greinke said last December. "Sorry about that."

Also.......as sensed on this site last week. From Brewers.com......Brewers nearing deal with veteran Kotsay
One-year Major League contract could be done within 24 hours
By Adam McCalvy / MLB.com | 02/01/11 4:50 PM EST
MILWAUKEE -- The Brewers were working Tuesday to finalize a contract for veteran outfielder Mark Kotsay, who would bring another left-handed bat to a righty-heavy Milwaukee roster.
The pending deal was reported by FOXSports.com, which said Kotsay would get a one-year Major League contract. Assistant general manager Gord Ash confirmed the sides were talking but said the team was still doing its due diligence when Miller Park was shut down at 3 p.m. CT because of a coming snowstorm.
Ash said a conclusion could be reached within 24 hours, even if the offices remain closed on Wednesday. The Brewers would have to clear a spot on their full 40-man roster for Kotsay.


The 35-year-old has played parts of 14 Major League seasons for six teams and spent the second half of 2009 and all of 2010 with the White Sox. He made 359 plate appearances for Chicago last season and batted .239 with eight home runs and 31 RBIs.
Kotsay appeared mostly as a first baseman and designated hitter for the White Sox in 2010, but has a lifetime .312 average as a pinch-hitter. He was just 3-for-12 in the pinch last season.
Kotsay could back up Prince Fielder at first base, though Fielder has played at least 157 games in five straight seasons. Kotsay would more likely fit into a somewhat crowded outfield that features All-Stars Ryan Braun and Corey Hart as fixtures at the corners.
Carlos Gomez is expected to start the season as the regular center fielder, and Kotsay would presumably compete with Chris Dickerson for left-handed at-bats. The Brewers also have switch-hitter Brandon Boggs on the 40-man roster. Among the non-roster invitees to camp is former Mariners and Mets outfielder Jeremy Reed, another left-handed hitter who can play center field.
Kotsay is represented by Greg Genske, the same agent who has been in discussions with the Brewers about arbitration-eligible second baseman Rickie Weeks.

Braun and Rodgers

We're going to have to get some ties to the Pack for the next few days. Good to hear he's working out with Kapler. Kapler's got that Palms physique you know.....

This from Adam McCalvy at MLB.

Ryan Braun considered going to Dallas to watch his buddy Aaron Rodgers play in the Super Bowl, but he's leaning against it because he doesn't want to miss any of his workouts. Braun has been working hard this winter with one of baseball's fitness freaks -- former Brewer Gabe Kapler.


They've been using the facilities at Peperdine University, which is near Braun's home.


"That guy is an animal," Braun said. "He's made me a much better athlete and helped me get bigger and stronger this offseason. I've known Gabe since I was 12, 13 years old, but this is the first offseason we've worked out. Trying to compete with him has made me better. His intensity is amazing."


So Braun will probably cheer Rodgers and the Packers from home next Sunday.


"I'm too paranoid about missing workouts," he said.